Choi-Wan (Philippine name Dante) is located 346 km south of Taipei, Taiwan, and has moved northeastward at 33 km/h (18 knots) over the past 6 hours.
Infrared imagery shows a heavily sheared convective structure with the low-level circulation center (LLCC) located just east of southern Taiwan.
The initial position is placed with moderate confidence using the infrared imagery loop, extrapolation from well-timed GMI 37 and images, and the PGTW satellite fix.
The system resides in a marginally favorable environment with fair equatorward outflow and warm (29-30°C) sea surface temperatures and low (5-10 knots) wind shear from the northeast and terrain interaction the southern tip of Taiwan.
Choi-Wan is tracking along the western edge of the subtropical ridge to the east and is beginning to interact with the mei-yu boundary to the north over the East China Sea.
Choi-Wan will continue moving to the northeast along the subtropical ridge and interact with the baroclinic zone of the mei-yu boundary and begin to tap into the poleward outflow channel.
The new outflow will allow for a slight intensification just before Choi-Wan moves over the cooler 25-27°C sea surface temperatures near the Ryukyu island chain and start dissipating the system.
Choi-Wan will encounter cooler 24-26°C sea surface temperatures in 24 hours, inhibiting any further development and completely dissipate the system in 36 hours, if not sooner.
Forecast guidance remains in tight agreement over the next 36 hours, lending high confidence to the JTWC track forecast.
LIVE CURRENT DATA
Sustained winds 45kph
Pressure 1004mb
NW at 33 km/h
