TD CHABA - 7.3.22 - 5am - UPDATE 20 FINAL
Winds 35 mph (56.33 km/h)
Gusts 45 mph (72.42 km/h)
Pressure 998 MB
Moving NW 14 mph (22.53 km/h)
Location: 23.07N 110.46E
New cone and discussion to be issued at 5am
Chaba (Philippine name Caloy) is located 333 km west-southwest of Hong Kong and has moved north-northwestward at 13 km/h (7 knots) over the past 6 hours.
Chaba is forecast to make landfall within the hour just east of Zhanjiang, China under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge to the east.
As the system tracks inland on a north-northwestward trajectory over the next 24 hours the system is forecast to rapidly decrease in intensity due to the orographic impacts of southern China.
As the system continues to weaken Chaba will turn north and eventually north-northeastward before dissipating fully in 2 days. With the exception of NAVGEM, numerical models are in good agreement that Chaba will move inland and make a gradual eastward turn before fully dissipating.
Reliable model intensity guidance also shows good agreement with all members indicating a sharp decline in intensity due to land over the next 24 hours after which a more gradual decline until eventual dissipation at 2 days.
For these reasons, JTWC track and intensity forecast is placed with medium confidence.
The maximum significant wave height is 7.9 meters (26 feet).
