9/22/2022

TYPHOON #18W #NORU (#KARDINGPH) 2022 UPDATE 32 9.28.22 8AM PHT

Last Modified: 10:00 September 27, 2022, UTC
Typhoon Noru (Karding) 2022
Noru (Karding) 2022

This is a dangerous system. Damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding are all possible risks.

Typhoon KARDING made landfall near Burdeos, Quezon at 5:30 PM today. This super typhoon is forecast to track generally westward in the next 6 hours, then west-northwestward for the remainder of the day. On the forecast track, KARDING will likely make landfall around General Nakar or Dingalan tonight. For the remainder of this evening post-landfall through tomorrow early morning, KARDING will traverse the landmass of Central Luzon and emerge over the West Philippine Sea via the coastal waters of Zambales or Pangasinan. The typhoon will then continue tracking mainly west-northwestward to westward over the West Philippine Sea for the remainder of the forecast period. KARDING is forecast to maintain its strength before its landfall. Frictional effects during landfall and traverse of the Luzon landmass will weaken KARDING throughout the evening through tomorrow early morning, although it is highly likely that this tropical cyclone will remain a typhoon while crossing the landmass.

The second landfall happened at 8.20 pm in Quezon province.

This is a dangerous system. Damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding are all possible risks.

Noru (Philippine name Karding) is located 215 km east of Da Nang, Vietnam, and has moved west-northwestward at 17 km/h (9 knots) over the past 6 hours.

Noru is rapidly weakening at this point, having dropped from 240 km/h (130 knots) to 195 km/h (105 knots) in 12 hours. The system continues to track westward towards a rendezvous with the Vietnamese coastline, along the southern side of the strong steering ridge entrenched to the north.

Landfall around Da Nang, Vietnam, is expected within the next 12 hours, around 28/00:00 UTC, though uncertainty in the initial position means that the track speeds could be slightly faster than currently assessed, equating to a slightly earlier landfall.

The system is expected to continue to weaken in the face of persistent, strong, easterly wind shear and intensity at landfall is currently expected to be around 165 km/h (90 knots).

Once ashore, terrain-induced frictional effects combined with the continuing shear will lead to extremely fast weakening, and the system is expected to dissipate over northeast Thailand in 2 days, and potentially as early as the next 36 hours.

The track guidance is in very tight agreement through the forecast period, with the maximum spread of only 139 km occurring at 2 days, though as mentioned, the uncertainty in the initial position could lead to some track speed deviations.

Overall confidence in the track remains high, however. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that the system will rapidly weaken through the forecast period. In fact, the JTWC forecast lies about 30 km/h (15 knots) above the consensus members at 12 hours, then regains the pack thereafter as it is unrealistic to see 75 km/h (40 knots) of weakening in 12 hours with a system still over water.

Due to uncertainty in the initial intensity, which is on the higher end of the available estimates, the impact of that on the forecast trend means there is only medium confidence in the JTWC forecast intensity.

The maximum significant wave height is 13.7 meters (ca. 45 feet).