Tropical Depression #lannieph #92w - Update 11 FINAL

TD #92w #LanniePh - Update 11 FINAL

Invest 92W (Philippine name Lannie) has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. The area of convection (Invest 92W) previously located near 11.8N 119.2E is now located near 13.0N 116.5E, 439 km northwest of Puerto Princesa, Palawan. Infrared imagery shows broad, disorganized convection over an obscured, broad, and elongated low-level circulation. Analysis shows marginally favorable conditions for development with strong equatorward outflow and very warm (30°C) sea surface temperatures offset by moderate (15-20 knots) wind shear. A partial ASCAT-A pass shows 20-30 km/h (10-15 knots) wind barbs around the center with patches of 37 km/h (20 knots) wind barbs 50+ nautical miles to the north and 35-45 km/h (20-25 knots) wind barbs 100+ nautical miles to the southeast. Forecast models are still in agreement that Invest 92W will move northwestward. Surface winds are around 30-40 km/h (17-22 knots).

TD #92w #LanniePh - Update 10

Invest 92W (Philippine name Lannie) has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. The area of convection (Invest 92W) previously located near 9.8N 121.5E is now located near 11.8N 119.2E, 239 km north of Puerto Princesa, Palawan. Satellite images show broad, disorganized convection over an obscured low-level circulation, with formative fragmented rain bands loosely wrapping in from the south. Analysis shows marginally favorable conditions for development with strong equatorward outflow and warm (29-30°C) sea surface temperatures offset by moderate (15-20 knots) wind shear. An ASCAT-A direct pass shows 20-30 km/h (10-15 knots) wind barbs around the center with patches of 35-45 km/h (20-25 knots) wind barbs 100+ nautical miles to the south under the rain bands. Forecast models are in general agreement that Invest 92W will strengthen as it tracks northwestward. Surface winds are around 35-45 km/h (18-23 knots).

TD #92w #LanniePh - Update 9

Invest 92W (Philippine name Lannie) accelerates while moving west-northwestward over the West Philippine Sea. It has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. The area of convection (Invest 92W) previously located near 9.8N 121.5E is now located near 11.8N 119.2E, 239 km north of Puerto Princesa, Palawan. Satellite images show broad, disorganized convection over an obscured low-level circulation, with formative fragmented rain bands loosely wrapping in from the south. Analysis shows marginally favorable conditions for development with strong equatorward outflow and warm (29-30°C) sea surface temperatures offset by moderate (15-20 knots) wind shear. An ASCAT-A direct pass shows 20-30 km/h (10-15 knots) wind barbs around the center with patches of 35-45 km/h (20-25 knots) wind barbs 100+ nautical miles to the south under the rain bands. Forecast models are in general agreement that Invest 92W will strengthen as it tracks northwestward. Surface winds are around 35-45 km/h (18-23 knots).

TD #92w #LanniePh - Update 8.1

Invest 92W (Philippine name Lannie) has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. The area of convection (Invest 92W) previously located near 7.78N 128.6E is now located near 9.8N 121.5E, 296 km east of Puerto Princesa. Satellite images show flaring convection around a broad LLC. 92W will continue to track west-northwestward into an environment of strong equatorward outflow, low (5-10 knots) wind shear, and very warm (30-31°C) sea surface temperatures. Global deterministic and ensemble models agree Invest 92W will strengthen to warning criteria as it tracks into the South China Sea. Surface winds are around 30-40 km/h (17-22 knots). Minimum sea-level pressure is near 1002 MB.

Tropical Depression #92w #LanniePh - Update 7

Just a comment first by myself before we go into the analysis. I disagree with PAGASA that 92W is a TD.

Invest 92W (Philippine name Lannie) has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. The area of convection (Invest 92W) previously located near 7.78N 128.6E is now located near 9.8N 121.5E, 296 km east of Puerto Princesa. Satellite images show flaring convection around a broad LLC. 92W will continue to track west-northwestward into an environment of strong equatorward outflow, low (5-10 knots) wind shear, and very warm (30-31°C) sea surface temperatures. Global deterministic and ensemble models agree Invest 92W will strengthen to warning criteria as it tracks into the South China Sea. Surface winds are around 30-40 km/h (17-22 knots). Minimum sea-level pressure is near 1006 MB.

WINDS 35 kph
GUSTS 42 kph
PRESSURE 1006 MB

Movement NW 20 kph
Data as of 10.04.21 11pm

Tropical Depression #92w #LanniePh - Update 6

Invest 92W (Philippine name Lannie) has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. The area of convection (Invest 92W) previously located near 7.78N 128.6E is now located near 9.63N 123.4E, 513 km east of Puerto Princesa. The broad area of troughing associated with Invest 92W has moved over the Philippine islands, lowering the probability of immediate formation. However, model guidance shows Invest 92W will move west-northwest into the South China Sea. Models vary regarding intensity with GFS deterministic being the most aggressive indicating Invest 92W will strengthen near warning criteria. Surface winds are around 30-35 km/h (15-20 knots). Minimum sea-level pressure is near 1006 MB.

Tropical depression #LanniePH is now over Guihulngan, Negros Oriental.

Signal no. 1 is up in these areas: -Southern portion of Masbate -Southern portion of Romblon -Southern portion of Oriental Mindoro -Southern portion of Occidental Mindoro -Northern portion of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands. Also for -Capiz -Aklan -Antique -Iloilo -Guimaras -Negros Occidental -Northern and central portions of Negros Oriental -Cebu -Bohol

WINDS 40 kph
GUSTS 49 kph
PRESSURE 1006 MB

Movement WNW 30 kph
Data as of 10.04.21 5pm

Tropical Depression #92w #LanniePh - Update 5

Invest 92W (Philippine name Lannie) has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. The area of convection (Invest 92W) previously located near 6.4N 133.8E is now located near 7.1N 130.5E, 1332 km southeast of Manila, Philippines. Satellite images show deep convection offset to the west of a low-level circulation center. Analysis shows favorable conditions for development, with strong equatorward outflow, low (10-15 knots) wind shear and warm (30-31°C) sea surface temperatures. Forecast guidance is in general agreement that 92W will move west-northwestward and slightly intensify to a small tropical depression over the next 24 hours.

WINDS 45 kph
GUSTS 62 kph
PRESSURE 1003 MB

Movement WNW 30 kph
Data as of 10.04.21 6.30am

Rainfall Warnings ⚠ 

Tropical Depression #92w #LanniePh - Update 4

Invest 92W (Philippine name Lannie) has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. The area of convection (Invest 92W) previously located near 6.4N 133.8E is now located near 7.1N 130.5E, 1332 km southeast of Manila, Philippines. Satellite images show deep convection offset to the west of a low-level circulation center. Analysis shows favorable conditions for development, with strong equatorward outflow, low (10-15 knots) wind shear and warm (30-31°C) sea surface temperatures. Forecast guidance is in general agreement that 92W will move west-northwestward and slightly intensify to a small tropical depression over the next 24 hours.

WINDS 37 kph
GUSTS 62 kph
PRESSURE 1006 MB

Movement WNW 32 kph
Data as of 10.04.21 6.00am

Tropical Depression #92w #LanniePh - Update 3

Invest 92W has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. (1) the area of convection (Invest 92W) previously located near 6.4N 133.8E is now located near 7.1N 130.5E, 1332 km southeast of Manila, Philippines. Satellite images show deep convection offset to the west of a low-level circulation center. Analysis shows favorable conditions for development, with strong equatorward outflow, low (10-15 knots) wind shear and warm (30-31°C) sea surface temperatures. Forecast guidance is in general agreement that 92W will move west-northwestward and slightly intensify to a small tropical depression over the next 24 hours.

ORANGE WARNING LEVEL: Cebu (Centra Cebu, Northern Cebu), Leyte, Southern Leyte, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran

SERIOUS FLOODING is expected in low-lying areas and LANDSLIDES in mountainous areas. 

YELLOW WARNING LEVEL:

Cebu (Southern Cebu)

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE in low-lying areas and LANDSLIDES in mountainous areas.

WINDS 40 kph
GUSTS 54 kph
PRESSURE 1004 MB
HUMIDITY 90%
CLOUDS 100%
SST 29-30 degrees Celsius
Storm Surge 2.6m
Data as of 10.04.21 4am